Professor of Mathematical Biology
Department of Applied Mathematics, School of Mathematics
University of Leeds
I develop mathematical and computational models to understand Infection & Immunity across scales (from the cellular, to within-host and population levels). My work combines stochastic modelling, probability theory, and data analysis to address real-world health challenges — from understanding how pathogens spread in hospitals to informing mitigations.
I am a Professor of Mathematical Biology in the School of Mathematics at the University of Leeds, and a member of the Mathematical Biology and Medicine Group.
My research focuses on the mathematical modelling of infection across scales — from intracellular and within-host dynamics to population-level epidemic processes. I am particularly interested in developing stochastic models that can capture the inherent randomness in these biological systems. Stochastic techniques can also help to incorporate realistic environmental conditions and human behaviour when modelling infection transmission. Our group has ongoing collaborations with multiple partners including the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl), UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), NHS, and the Department for Transport.
Previously, I held an MRC Skills Development Fellowship (2016–2019), where I developed stochastic models for understanding the emergence and spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in healthcare settings. I received my PhD in Mathematics from the Complutense University of Madrid (2013), where I remain affiliated with the Stochastic Modelling Group.
Our group's research combines mathematical modelling with experimental and clinical data to address challenges in infection, immunity, and public health. Below are some current and recent projects we are involved in.
Developing mathematical models of Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever at multiple scales — from viral reassortment at the cellular level to hospital transmission and phylogenetic analysis. This US-UK collaboration combines modelling with experimental virology and clinical data from endemic regions.
Funded by: BBSRC-NIH EEID.
PI: Prof Grant Lythe (University of Leeds) & Prof Carmen Molina-Paris (Los Alamos National Laboratory).
Partner Institutions: Los Alamos National Laboratory (USA), UK Health Security Agency (UK), Kafkas University (Turkey), Sivas University Hospital (Turkey), Tajik Research Institute of Preventive Medicine (Tajikistan).
Mathematical modelling of emerging porcine respiratory viruses as part of a European consortium. Developing mathematical models across scales, calibrated to experimental infection data, to understand viral dynamics and inform control strategies.
Funded by: European ICRAD Consortium - BBSRC.
PI: Prof Kristien Van Reeth (Ghent University).
Partners: Pirbright Institute (UK), Utrecht University (Netherlands), Ghent University (Belgium), CIB Madrid (Spain), Pontificia Comillas University (Spain).
Website: EPICVIR
The Healthy Buildings Network is a University of Leeds Horizons Institute Challenge Network bringing together researchers across engineering, mathematics, medicine, and architecture to address the impact of indoor environments on health, particularly in the context of net zero and climate change.
Funded by: University of Leeds Horizons Institute.
Network Co-leads: Prof Martin Lopez-Garcia, Dr Marco-Felipe King, Dr Irene Mussio
Website: Healthy Buildings Network Leeds
Developing stochastic multi-scale models linking intracellular bacterial dynamics, within-host infection progression, and population-level risk assessment for bacterial pathogens such as Francisella tularensis or Bacillus anthracis.
Funded by: EPSRC CASE Studentships & IAA projects with Dstl.
Partners: Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl, UK), UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA, UK).
Williams et al. (2021) Frontiers in Immunology.
Multidisciplinary project designed to address knowledge gaps around COVID-19 transmission on public transport. TRACK has developed a novel risk model that can simulate infection risk through three transmission mechanisms (droplet, aerosol, surface contact) within different transport vehicles and operating scenarios.
Funded by: EPSRC & UK Department for Transport.
PI: Prof Catherine J Noakes (University of Leeds).
Partners: Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl, UK), UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA, UK), UK Department for Transport, University of Newcastle (UK), Cambridge University (UK), Imperial College London (UK).
Website: TRACK
I have published 70+ peer-reviewed articles in mathematical biology, immunology, epidemiology and quantitative microbial risk assessment. Below are selected recent highlights. For a complete list, see my Google Scholar profile.
View all publications on Google Scholar
PLoS Computational Biology, 2025
Mechanistic within-host mathematical model of anthrax infection calibrated against
Indoor Environments, 2025
QMRA framework combining experimental aerosol measurements with mathematical modelling to quantify infection risk from toilet flushing.
Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2024
Novel stochastic methodology to estimate the reproduction number in viral kinetics models, developed in collaboration with Dstl and Los Alamos National Laboratory.
Risk Analysis, 2024
Extending classical airborne transmission models to incorporate parametric uncertainty, stochastic effects and realistic transient behaviours.
Journal of Transport and Health, 2024
Part of the TRACK project that provided key evidence to the Department for Transport during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Journal of Hospital Infection, 2024
Novel methodology for assessing how changing weather conditions affect ventilation and infection risk in healthcare settings.
Postdoctoral Research Fellow
Mathematical modelling of CCHFV, Bacillus anthracis and other biothreats
PhD Student (2024–)
Mathematical modelling of Q fever infection dynamics
PhD Student (2022–)
Mathematical modelling of nosocomial infections
PhD Student (2022–)
Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment techniques for fomite transmission
PhD Student (2022–)
Distribution of microbial pathogens in aerosols and the implications for airborne transmission
PhD Student (2020–)
Mathematical modelling of bacterial infections
PhD Student (2025–)
Mathematical modelling of tumour growth and oncolytic viruses
Former group members and their current positions:
| Name | Role | Years | Current Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dr Paula Avello | PDRA | 2024–2025 | Lecturer, University of Leeds |
| Dr Alexander Edwards | PhD | 2020–2024 | Lecturer, University of Bristol |
| Dr Ciara Higham | PhD | 2020–2025 | PDRA, University of Sheffield |
| Dr James Paterson | PhD | 2019–2024 | PDRA, University of Manchester |
| Dr Giulia Belluccini | PhD / PDRA | 2019–2022 | Data Analyst, Lloyds Bank, UK |
| Dr Daniel Luque Duque | PhD | 2018–2022 | PDRA, University of Oxford |
| Dr Macauley Locke | PhD | 2019–2024 | PDRA, Los Alamos National Laboratory (USA) |
| Dr Sijia Li | PhD | 2019–2022 | Data Analyst, Lloyds Bank, UK |
| Dr Polly-Anne Jeffrey | PhD / PDRA | 2017–2022 | Senior Cancer Data Analyst, NHS Digital |
| Dr Flavia Feliciangeli | PhD | 2019–2023 | Data Scientist (biotech), Germany |
| Dr Van Thuy Truong | PhD | 2019–2024 | Data Scientist (pharma), UK |
| Dr Lea Sta | PhD | 2019–2022 | Data Scientist (pharma), UK |
| Dr Maria Nowicka | PhD | 2012–2018 | PDRA, University of Oxford |
| Dr Luis de la Higuera | PhD | 2013–2018 | Data Scientist (industry) |
| Dr Hanan Dreiwi | Daphne Jackson Fellow | 2019–2023 | Teaching Assistant, University of Huddersfield |
I teach modules in applied mathematics, probability, and mathematical biology at undergraduate and postgraduate levels at the University of Leeds. My teaching is research-led, drawing on our group's work in infection modelling and stochastic processes.
In our group, we have supervised numerous PhD students in the past in collaboration with external partners including Dstl, UKHSA, AstraZeneca, and the NHS. I welcome enquiries from prospective PhD students interested in mathematical biology, stochastic modelling, mathematical epidemiology, immunology and Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment. See the sections above for current students and ongoing projects. Please get in touch to discuss opportunities.
Room 10.18d
School of Mathematics Satellite
University of Leeds
Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
+44 (0)113 343 8951
Interested in collaborating or pursuing a PhD in mathematical biology? I'd be happy to hear from you.